I want everything to be back to normal by Easter as well. Do I think it will happen? No.
I expect things to start to get back to normal by around Memorial Day and things to actually feel like they are close to normal around Independence Day.
However, I don't expect events like concerts and festivals that to get fully back to normal at all this year. Yeah they will start to take place again but I doubt they will be nearly as crowded as they have been in past years.
My understanding of how short term our memory is after disasters like 9/11, school shootings, means you should be back to DFK'n your fav by end of April. That is unless some country like Brazil doesnt have 5,000 deaths in the next 3 weeks. I guess we should enjoy the next 3 weeks without SJG while they last.
The only thing that will cripple the comeback is how quickly our education system went to virtual learning. A lot of parents will find it hard to come back to work, but companies are great at forcing us to come in to drive revenue.
The question that isn't being addressed by this collection of deep thinkers, what happens if we relax the SIH rules too quickly and have to go back and reinstate this whole chapter all over ? Address that before you jump off the edge of the cliff like a bunch of lemmings.
> mean, who will want to go on a cruise ship after this experience ?<
good point. But add that BEFORE covid19 emerged cruise ships were already having serious problems [ & much bad PR ] with rapid transmission of on-board infections.
Covid19 just upped the difficulty for cruise lines.
With all the social-distancing, the cases worldwide have still grown exponentially in the last week to 10 days - some people are acting as if we've turned the corner or about to turn-the-corner when in fact it's getting worse not better (in terms of cases) - we're still ascending in this pandemic, not descending, nor do we "have this under control" - lack of supplies for care-workers; lack of testing for most of the population; plus an exponential increase in cases - how are we supposed to somewhat "get back to normal" when things are getting worse not better.
And I don't necessarily buy the "hey it's not in this county or that county so there isn't a problem in those areas" - with the way this thing is spreading all one could assume is when, not if, those areas will be significantly affected.
===> " - with the way this thing is spreading all one could assume is when, not if, those areas will be significantly affected."
Not if they were paying attention. It's blowing up faster in NY than anywhere else, by a lot. It has been mostly stagnant in N. Florida over the past two weeks - almost all the new cases are coming out of 3 counties and even that is not nearly the growth rate experienced in NY, though the droves of New Yorkers continuing to fly into those counties isn't helping.
So with respect to Florida, the real question now is whether the increased numbers are really a function of increased transmission or dramatically increased testing. I think we should also be asking ourselves why it is blowing up so much in NY (in the 30s and 40s still) while not growing so much in warmer southern states.
I'm guessing that the President's advisors are drawing hope from these same observations. We shall see.
"why it is blowing up so much in NY "
__________
That's easy: the neighborhood population density in NYC is highest in the country, 2.5x greater than SF, which is in second place.
It's now being estimated by those who have studied it that about eighty percent of the cases in China occurred in family clusters. So, instead of having everyone stay home, isolating the infected may work better. They started doing that in China. This will require additional temporary hospitals here in the U.S. where all the infected can be gathered together. In both China and South Korea cases peaked after 43 weeks and new cases in Italy are slowing down as it approaches its 43rd week. The U.S. will reach its 43rd week in about three weeks so things may start improving about the middle of May.
Depends on the stimulus passed. States like Mississippi are fucking us over, Connecticut was one of the first states to go on lockdown and the fact that Mississippi and Florida dragged their feet will probably just extend our quarantine unless we isolate states from the general population.
Easter is far out enough that Trump can see how bad it is and extend it. Mississippi in my opinion will be ground zero for the pandemic soon enough with their 20% poverty rate and their obesity rate. Everyone stay safe, hoping we can quarantine Mississippi because their inaction will doom us all to an even longer quarantine.
Once we start to see improvement it will be hard to keep things shut down. Of course it will all happen at different paces across the country. I hope they don’t end up keeping the whole country shut down while we wait for other states to catch up
We know that the epicenter of the outbreak in Italy was an area with 100,000 Chinese immigrants and frequent flights directly to Wuhan.
Why is there an outbreak in NYC ? Population density and colder temps, sure. But, let’s not ignore the number of international travelers compared to Fargo, Boise, and Little Rock.
Health experts say it's no surprise that New Orleans is the epicenter of the coronavirus crisis in hard-hit Louisiana, after over a million people flocked to the city to celebrate Carnival for more than a month, culminating in Mardi Gras at the end of February.
Man I want things back to normal asap but there are some good things thanks to the corona. National parks are free entry instead of $30 every time or $80 annual pass. Some state parks are free due to lack of staffing because of covid 19. Gas is cheap as hell. Roads are empty.
If they reopen by Easter then, IMO, this was all a bunch of bullshit. Shutting down the entire economy only to re-open after a few weeks is not going to have a huge impact on the overall effect of a virus. There are still people getting sick, and they will still be new people getting sick in a few weeks from now. So, opening up all businesses by Easter would just mean that the spread of the virus would resume.
So then that begs the question, WTF was the point? How much did "the curve" flatten? Were there no other alternatives that could have had a similar effect on the spread of the virus without MASSIVELY destroying the economy, the markets, and the national currency?
Did they not consider launching a huge public health campaign, and using the executive branch's emergency powers to order a few companies to start producing PPE in mass quantities? You could get the knowledge into the citizens' heads that this is a big deal WITHOUT sending them all home and ordering every business to shut down.
The point was nothing. This flatten the curve nonsense was nothing about health but about removing liability. Millions die to heart disease, diabetes, cancer, suicide, etc and the world doesnt give a shit about it.This was companies, schools, and government trying to avoid finger pointing and lawsuits. Trust me if we could sue Mcdonalds for heartattacks they'd serve us kale chips and steamed chicken
Will we see him in the middle of a crowded church for Easter Sunday services. Nothing to fear, virus contained. Leading by example?
Somehow, I just don't think so...
^^^ Do you have a reliable reference from the medical or scientific community about your subway theory? NYC cases are probably exploding because it has the highest neighborhood population density in the country. Large densely populated cities are at the greatest risk.
Trump's idea of encouraging packed churches on Easter Sunday is beyond insane. He's an incompetent idiot and we would be better off he would just step aside and let the medical and scientific community come up with a plan.
"... According to the most recent news report I heard, the subways are the cause of New York City's explosion of cases ..."
That's been widely reported - makes sense - whether it's beyond-the-shadow-of-doubt, no - but it does make sense - NYC is not only densely-populated, but people overwhelmingly use public transportation whether it's subways, buses, ferries, trains, etc - along w/ a shit-ton of pedestrians.
w.r.t. the subways - per Google - there is an avg of 5-million+ subway riders daily, not only often shoulder-to-shoulder, but repeatedly touching those surfaces like handrails and the surfaces at the terminals.
I'm a conservative - and for the most-part, I support most of Trump's policies particularly w.r.t. economic issues - but the guy is getting on my fucking-nerves with his bullshit - even in this fucking crisis he can't help himself from congratulating himself for the job he's doing; it's pretty-fucking off-putting even though I've usually cut-him-slack b/c for me the alternative (a socialist) is way fucking worse - but yeah, I'm thinking this guy actually has fucking mental issues - but I'll still take a mental-defective over a fucking socialist.
I would also think he may be pretty-tired from all that is going-on and the fact is this guy will turn 74 shortly - I think the combo of his age and the stress of all of this, is affecting his performance - having said all this, I think he could be doing a better job and be a better leader - I actually much-prefer to hear Pence speak than Trump and his at times clown side-act.
Look at the US curve towards the bottom of the page - that doesn't look like a curve that is gonna bend in the right-direction any time soon:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Open by Easter gets America past the personal holidays (Easter & Mother's Day) and back to the national holidays where ppl spend the most money. His businesses are hurting, his speeches speak on the hotel/travel segment a bit too much
The daily US deaths graph from Papi’s link makes this look pretty bad. For almost a week US deaths have been doubling every other day. IDK if they’re expecting that trend to continue, but if it does we will pass 50k in 2 weeks. At that point we would be losing tens of thousands of people a day. That sounds horrible. It’s hard to imagine it even being possible. I hope trump is right and we can just put a bottle of sanitizer in our pockets and go back to business as usual
On March 15, Mayor DeBlasio encouraged everyone to go out to their neighborhood bar for one last fling, knowing he was about to close things down. Of course, he’d like to blame the subways, or anything else he can, rather than his lack of leadership.
“US deaths have been doubling every other day. IDK if they’re expecting that trend to continue, but if it does we will pass 50k in 2 weeks.“
The death total always follows a bell curve. It is never linear. Figure that deaths reflect the number of infections from two weeks prior. That’s what this 15 day social distancing is all about. Also, as the virus spreads in a community, most people recover, become immune, and the rate of spread reduces. I’m hoping that, in the hardest hit areas, we are at the top of the bell curve. Anyway, that should be the math.
Today, Dr Birx addressed the camp That claims 70% of the population will be infected and millions die. She said this is only possible if there are 3 separate waves of infection seasons that repeat, say now, next winter, and the following winter. That’s not going to happen. We will be well prepared for a second wave next winter.
“I actually much-prefer to hear Pence speak than Trump and his at times clown side-act.”
Yup, different leadership styles for different situations. I think Trump understands this and that’s why he put Pence in charge. That’s also why, following 8 years of Trump disruption, I think we’ll be ready for Pence’s steady presidential personality.
I prefer to hear Dr.Fauci speak with regard to the science of the situation and Mnuchin on the economics, Trump says very little that is believable, and Mike Pence has shown himself to be nothing more than a fawning asskisser of ginormous proportions.
It's insulting to say the least to listen to those late afternoon/early evening White House press briefings.
So what exactly magically changes by Easter? I suppose the 2 trillion earmarked for economic support will help all those Dr's stock portfolios while they work themselves to death when it surges again. I am just mystified how this much money can be put on the table if we effectively say "fuck it"
Some of you are fucking idiots arguing inane and irrelevant points.
The fact is this is a fast spreading virus. We have no idea how many are infected. The cases we know of are tboae severe enough to be noted and tested. A high percentage of known cases die. Hospitals are not equipped to cope with increasing coronavirus cases and the regular fow of medical emergencies.
The morons claiming every part of the country has different rates and deserves different measures. That will only work with a domestic travel ban.
What is the difference between a restored functioning US economy in three weeks and the Easter Bunny?
One is a completely fabricated fairy tale and the other is an anthropomorphic storybook bunny that gives candy to kids at Easter.
"... That will only work with a domestic travel ban ..."
Key West has less than 20 confirmed cases and seems they wanna keep it that way - they have blocked off the bridges/causeways to the keys and only allowing residents, deliveries, and those that have to do work in the area.
@Clubber if I was 71 I wouldn't be hitting the streets right now (or having incall) if I were you. It's not like the the Hedge Funds care if there is one more write off.
I just heard a line by Dr. Fauci w.r.t. when to reopen the economy which is simple and to the point:
"You don't make the timeline - the virus makes the timeline"
Simple as that - everything else is just wishful-thinking/speculation
^ What Dr. Fauci is actually saying is that medical folks, with their wildly varying estimates of virus transmission and mortality rate,s get to make the timeline.
Too bad for Dr. Fauci that worst case medical scenarios are not the only consideration that politicians have to take into account. They need to be balanced with the harm to the populace caused by an extended economic shutdown, including increases in suicide rates and the effects of massive increases in poverty levels.
"increases in suicide rates and poverty levels"
Who gives a shit about that when the virus will kill you. Politicians wont have voters if they're 6 feet under. Voters won't give a shit about poverty cause they'll be worried about staying alive and healthy.
Flattening the curve is fake? - are you fucking stupid or some backwards asswad who likes to be a wannabe Bear Grylls who drinks his own piss? Take a lesson in common sense population and urban studies to understand what it means. Hospital workers have no protection being exposed to the virus and then have to be in the presence of other patients who may or my not be sick. They're starting to become the ones spreading the virus which is why some heathcare workers want to shut down their hospitals.
Man, how the fuck some of you know how to bargain for some action but lack the common sense to acknowledge a problem is beyond me. Read a book god dammit
Kudabra, take some testosterone and grow a pair. You're ranting like a hysterical woman.
You're behaving like they're dropping in the streets.
There are lots of health risks that we don't shut down the economy for, including the flu that kills 20,000+ Americans every year. In some warmer states the daily growth has already started to drop. Suicides, jumps in domestic violence, spikes in crime rates and plunging families into generational poverty are all real concerns with lasting consequences.
So yes squealing man, we balance health risks with other societal concerns all the time and the coronavirus should be no different. If the growth rates have dropped in certain areas by Easter, then it may be time to selectively ease restrictions in those areas. There is simply only so long that our social services net can handle the strain already being put on it.
Upright,
I'm at less than a 10% chance of dying IF I get the chinese virus. The next group above me is at 19%, and I am far from joining that group. :)
Warmer states? like Louisiana? starting to drop, no... It's freaking skyrocketting.
Yes in California. BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE TAKING ISOLATION SERIOUSLY THERE!!!!
And if you have 10% chance of dying, there's about 30% chance of spending 5 or more days at a hospital bed, probably sedated with a ventilator shoved down your throat trying to force your lungs to be inflated. (what doesn't kill you won't make you stronger if 30% of your lung capacity had permanent damage, BTW).
Like so many other issues, unfortunately too many radicals see this as a black and white issue. Live or Die, not considering how horrible getting that sick is even if you do recover.
Welp, Trump just extended the "guideline" to April 30. So maybe Mother's day is the new "target"? I think once Florida and Texas shut down very soon, that will be it and every other state will probably do the same. Unfortunately, they'll be weeks too late, especially Florida (with all those spring breakers spreading the virus around the state and country and they only closed Disney World a little over two weeks ago, so you'll start seeing the effects of that pretty soon), to avoid becoming like New York, which will probably end up with around 5k+ dead just in NYC. I mean Florida might just become Italy version 2 (similar demographics and late reaction). Or version 3 if Spain becomes Italy v.2.
Man this quarantine stuff has got all kinds of lurkers posting stuff now. I keep seeing these unfamiliar names posting, and sure enough they've been around for years when I look at their profiles. Some guy who's probably wanted to light into Dugan for years finally snaps, and it's like that time Dancealot came back from the hinterlands to lay the smackdown on Nicole.
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